Investigating the impact of the devaluation of national currency and macroeconomic indicators considering the political effects of sanctions on stock prices

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Accounting, Urmia Branch, Islamic Azad University, Urmia, Iran

2 Department of Accounting, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

Abstract

The present article examines the effect of weakening the value of the national currency and macroeconomic indicators by considering the political effects of sanctions on stock prices and the SVAR structural self-regression model for the years 1370-1397. According to the SVAR estimates, an 89 percent increase in oil revenue will boost the stock price index, as well as a financial crisis and sanctions, a weakening of the national currency and a production gap of 11, 86, respectively. , 53 and 12 percent of the stock price index, also based on the results of immediate reaction functions, the shocks received by endogenous variables up to the first two periods; it goes up and then goes down. In terms of economic structure and the principles of economics, a steady rise in the dollar will lead to economic prosperity and a decrease in the stock price index, but if this increase is temporary, the economic boom in the stock market will not be observed. In general, due to the different infrastructures, patterns and economic conditions of the country, a separate study of how the Iranian stock market is affected by the uncertainty of government monetary policy, government fiscal policy and government foreign exchange policy can be in the country's major decisions. Provide an accurate view of how Iran's financial market is changing as a result of these fluctuations.

Keywords

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Volume 13, Issue 2
July 2022
Pages 1089-1103
  • Receive Date: 01 July 2021
  • Revise Date: 19 August 2021
  • Accept Date: 05 September 2021