Identifying and ranking financial market risks in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Economic, Faculty of Economic and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran

Abstract

Fluctuations in asset prices and the resulting uncertainty are one of the most important macroeconomic variables that affect different sectors of the economy in various ways. Therefore, this study is conducted to identify and rank financial market risks in Iran. This study was performed in two parts: qualitative and quantitative. The statistical population in the qualitative section includes the University of Professors in the field of economics in Iran, where $10$ people were selected as a statistical sample by available sampling. The statistical population in the quantitative section were professors and doctoral students in the field of economics. By random sampling method, $30$ people were selected. Data collection tools are the Delphi questionnaire and pairwise comparison questionnaire. Data analysis was performed by fuzzy Delphi and AHP methods. In the results of the qualitative section, 7 components including $4$ components for bad economic uncertainty and $3$ components for good economic uncertainty were identified. In the results of the quantitative section, stock index uncertainty with a weight of $0.391$ and inflation uncertainty with a weight of $0.276$ rank first and second in bad economic uncertainty. Also, economic growth uncertainty with a weight of $0.493$ and liberalization of financial markets with a weight of $0.311$ rank first and second in good economic uncertainty, respectively.

Keywords

Volume 13, Issue 2
July 2022
Pages 2405-2412
  • Receive Date: 02 June 2021
  • Revise Date: 02 August 2021
  • Accept Date: 26 August 2021
  • First Publish Date: 24 June 2022