Presenting a profit forecasting model based on behavioral tax of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Accounting, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to provide a profit forecasting model based on the behavioral tax of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange; Research method in terms of purpose, basic-applied in terms of data type, quantitative; Depending on the time of data collection, it was a combination (time series and cross-sectional) and according to the method of data collection or the nature and method of research, survey and library. The statistical population of the first part of the study included all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. To determine the samples of this part of the research, a systematic sampling method was used, which was finally selected as a sample by applying the desired filters to 120 companies. The second group of the statistical population of this study included all investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange who were selected using the cluster random sampling method and the Cochran Orkut formula of 385 people as a sample. Modern Rahdavard and Tadbiardazar database software and the distribution of researcher-made questionnaires based on standard questionnaires were used to collect the data. In the inferential and quantitative sections, we used two models of data panel regression and structural equations to answer the research questions. The results showed that behavioral variables such as management overconfidence, stock price information efficiency, stock price synchronization, information efficiency, reluctant effect, mass effect, emotional bias, cognitive bias and exponential bias Corporate profits are effective Also, indicators of economic confidence and information reliability affect the interaction between behavioral decisions and corporate profits.

Keywords

[1] E.F. Fama and K.R. French, The Cross section of Expected Stock Returns, J. Finance 47 (1992), 427–465.
[2] R.J. Fuller, Behavioural Finance and the Sources of Alpha, LUGANO, 2000.
[3] L. Glaser, S.P. Fourne and T. Elfring, Achieving strategic renewal: The multi-level influences of top and middle managers’ boundary-spanning, Small Bus. Econ. 45 (2015), no. 2, 305–327.
[4] P. Graham, Critical systems theory: A political economy of language, thought, and technology, Commun. Res. 26 (1999), no. 4, 482–507.
[5] D. Hackbarth, Managerial traits and capital structure decisions, J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 43 (2008), no. 4, 843–881.
[6] L.A. Hayduk, Structural Equation Modeling with LISREL: Essentials and Advances, Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins University Press, 1987.
[7] E.S. Hendriksen and M.F. Van Breda, Accounting Theory, Richard d’Irwin, Subsequent Edition, 1991.
[8] M. Ishikawa and H. Takahashi, Overconfident managers and external financing choice, Rev. Behav. Finance 2 (2019), 37—58.
[9] D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, Prospect theory, an analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 47 (1979), no. 2., 99-127.
[10] M. Khoshtinat V. Nadi Gbomi, The framework of relation of investors overconfidence behavior with stock return, Emir. Stud. Financ. Account. 7 (2009), no. 25, 53–85.
[11] G. Lintner, What are the distinctive features of behavioural finance as applied to individual investor‘s decision–making?, Int. Proc. Econ. Dev. Res., 2015.
[12] M. McNichols, Evidence of informational asymmetries from management earnings forecasts and stock returns, Account. Rev. 64 (1989), 1–27.
[13] H. Schefrin and M. Statman, The disposition effect to sell winners too early and ride losers too long, J. Finance 40 (1985), no. 3, 777–790.
[14] M.F. Shams Lialestani, H. Ghalibaf Asl and S. Sarabi Nobukht, The impact of experience on risktaking, overconfidence and herding of investment companies’ managers in, J. Secur. Exchange 3 (2011), no. 12, 25–42.
[15] M. Soliman, Perception of stress and coping strategies by medical students at King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, J. Taibah Univer. Med. Sci. 9 (2011), no. 1, 30—35.
[16] J.A. Zachman, A framework for information systems architecture, IBM Syst. J. 26 (2011), no. 3.
Volume 14, Issue 12
December 2023
Pages 289-298
  • Receive Date: 19 June 2022
  • Revise Date: 14 August 2022
  • Accept Date: 26 August 2022