Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Ashraf Mohamed Shareef ¹
• Sarmad Jaafar Naser ¹
• Ahmad M. Hashim ²

¹ Faculty of Nursing, National University of Science and Technology, Thi-Qar, Iraq

² Mazaya University College, Iraq

Abstract

In this research, the (Box - Jenkins) methodology and annual artificial neural networks in predicting theoretical and practical levels were identified and clarified by constructing time series models and artificial networks to predict the mortality rate of Iraq and the data represented by the mortality rate for the time period (1980 - 2018). It was obtained from the Central Statistical Organization where the data were analyzed using time series according to the Box-Jenkins method and artificial neural networks using the program (Eviws.v9, SPSS, Zaitun.TS) and the most important conclusions and recommendations were reached, the most important of which proved the time series model using residues and values The ARMA model has its advantage over the neural network model for predicting Iraqi mortality. So we recommend using this form.

Keywords

• ARIMA model
• neural networks
• death in Iraq