Using the identification and analysis of defense factors effective in the vulnerability of the new city of Andisheh and developing a scenario in dealing with natural and human threats.

Document Type : Research Paper


Department of Urban Planning, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran



Cities undergo changes and transformations according to their geographical location and human and natural factors. In this regard, they experience various natural and human threats and crises. Therefore, strategies and effective factors should be identified and used by the threats. In this context, it is essential to emphasize defence factors and reduce vulnerability. In this research, the aim is to identify and analyze the effective defence factors in the vulnerability of the new city of Andisheh and then develop a scenario to deal with natural and human threats. The descriptive-analytical research method is based on data collection from library and field methods. The field data collection method was a questionnaire, the validity of which was confirmed through elites and its reliability with Cronbach's alpha greater than 0.70. The statistical population of the research was also formed by experts and elites of urban management in Andisheh City, and 50 people were determined as the sample size. Analyzes were performed with prospective tools such as interaction effects analysis and Mic Mac software. The result showed that 50 factors are known in the subject field. The analysis of the results shows that the factors of reducing the city's reserve lands with the establishment of new uses as well as non-observance of the prohibitions of dangerous uses are among the important influencing factors, and on the other hand, the variables of increasing migration to Andisheh city as well as non-observance of defence and crisis management standards as The most important influencing factors are known. To reduce the vulnerability of Andisheh city, 10 scenarios have been proposed, and based on the results, 4 scenarios include one scenario as the strongest scenario, one scenario as a favourable trend, and two scenarios as critical scenarios, as possible scenarios to reduce the vulnerability of the new city of Andisheh. were chosen. With the realization of each of the scenarios, the city's vulnerability will change. The strongest scenario has a lot of emphasis on improving the indicators, including increasing the use of urban reserve lands, complying with the prohibitions of dangerous uses, and controlling the growth of immigration in a short schedule.


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Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 20 February 2024
  • Receive Date: 22 July 2023
  • Accept Date: 07 October 2023