Using the identification and analysis of defense factors effective in the vulnerability of the new city of Andisheh and developing a scenario in dealing with natural and human threats.

Abdolmaleki, Mohamad; Rahimi, Mahmoud

doi:10.22075/ijnaa.2023.31574.4671

Using the identification and analysis of defense factors effective in the vulnerability of the new city of Andisheh and developing a scenario in dealing with natural and human threats.

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Mohamad Abdolmaleki

Mahmoud Rahimi

Department of Urban Planning, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

10.22075/ijnaa.2023.31574.4671

Abstract

Cities undergo changes and transformations according to their geographical location and human and natural factors. In this regard, they experience various natural and human threats and crises. Therefore, strategies and effective factors should be identified and used by the threats. In this context, it is essential to emphasize defence factors and reduce vulnerability. In this research, the aim is to identify and analyze the effective defence factors in the vulnerability of the new city of Andisheh and then develop a scenario to deal with natural and human threats. The descriptive-analytical research method is based on data collection from library and field methods. The field data collection method was a questionnaire, the validity of which was confirmed through elites and its reliability with Cronbach's alpha greater than 0.70. The statistical population of the research was also formed by experts and elites of urban management in Andisheh City, and 50 people were determined as the sample size. Analyzes were performed with prospective tools such as interaction effects analysis and Mic Mac software. The result showed that 50 factors are known in the subject field. The analysis of the results shows that the factors of reducing the city's reserve lands with the establishment of new uses as well as non-observance of the prohibitions of dangerous uses are among the important influencing factors, and on the other hand, the variables of increasing migration to Andisheh city as well as non-observance of defence and crisis management standards as The most important influencing factors are known. To reduce the vulnerability of Andisheh city, 10 scenarios have been proposed, and based on the results, 4 scenarios include one scenario as the strongest scenario, one scenario as a favourable trend, and two scenarios as critical scenarios, as possible scenarios to reduce the vulnerability of the new city of Andisheh. were chosen. With the realization of each of the scenarios, the city's vulnerability will change. The strongest scenario has a lot of emphasis on improving the indicators, including increasing the use of urban reserve lands, complying with the prohibitions of dangerous uses, and controlling the growth of immigration in a short schedule.

Keywords

defense

vulnerability

new cities

crisis

new city of thought

[1] M. Akbari and M.A. Ahmadi Moghadam, A review of passive defense in urban management, Int. J. Geopol. 10 (2014), no. 2, 36–69.

[2] H. Baghbani, V. Riazi, A. Kheirati, M. Biglari, and A. Beik Bolandi, Identifying and explaining the factors affecting the doctrine of passive defense: The study of the holy city of Mashhad, J. Innov. Manage. Defen. Organ. 4 (2021), no. 1, 131–152.

[3] E.A. Calderon, Invisible territories: The visibility of an urban crisis in Medellın, Theor. Urban Dev. From Glob. South 34 (2021), no. 2, 127–148.

[4] T. Chronopoulos and J. Soffer, Introduction. After the urban crisis: New York and the rise of inequality, J. Urban History 43 (2017), no. 6, 855–863.

[5] L. Falt, New cities and the emergence of ’privatized urbanism’in Ghana, Built Envir. 44 (2019), no. 4, 438–460.

[6] S.J. Hashemi Fesharaki, G.A. Rashid, and H. Hosseini Amini, Strategic considerations of non-active defense in the city master plan to reduce vulnerability, Urban Manag. Stud. 6 (2013), no. 18, 38–63.

[7] F.W. Hayes III, Historical disaster and the new urban crisis, J. Afr. Amer. Stud. 22 (2018), no. 1, 1–16.

[8] A.M. Hilal, B.S. Alfurhood, F.N. Al-Wesabi, M.A. Hamza, M.A. Duhayyim, and H.G. Iskandar, Artificial intelligence based sentiment analysis for health crisis management in smart cities, Computers, Materials & Continua, 71 (2022), no. 1, 1–17.

[9] E. Khayambashi, Earthquake centered neighborhood crisis management, Second Nat. Conf. Civil Engin. Islamic Azad University, Khomeinishahr Branch, Khomeinishahr, 2010.

[10] P.I. Korah, Exploring the emergence and governance of new cities in Accra, Ghana, Cities 99 (2020), no. 1, 1–16.

[11] S.A. Mohamed and M.E. El-Raey, Vulnerability assessment for flash floods using GIS spatial modeling and remotely sensed data in El-Arish city, North Sinai, Egypt, Natural Hazards 102 (2020), no. 2, 707–728.

[12] M. Razpour, M. Iraqizadeh, and M. Ali Al-Hasabi, The explanation model of passive defence indicators in order to reduce urban vulnerability, a case study: Sanandaj city, Crisis Manag. 7 (2017), no. 2, 137–153.

[13] M.R. Rezaei and M. Yarahamdi, Analyzing the factors affecting the vulnerability of urban spaces against earthquakes with the passive defence approach (A case study in the city of Esfrain), 7th Comprehen. Crisis Manag. Conf., Tehran, 2022.

[14] J. Ruzicka and K. Navratilova, Crisis management as the part of smart traffic control in cities, Smart City Symp. Prague, IEEE, 2020, pp. 1–5.

[15] A. Saroj and S. Pal, Use of social media in crisis management: A survey, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 48 (2020), 101584.

[16] H. Sarvar and A. Kashani Asl, Physical vulnerability assessment of Ahar city against earthquake crisis, Environ. Stud. J. 9 (2015), no. 34, 87–108.

[17] M. Servi, Assessment of vulnerability to earthquake hazards using spatial multicriteria analysis: Odunpazarı Eskisehir case study, Master’s thesis, Middle East Technical University, 2004.

[18] L. Song, Q. Li, G.F. List, Y. Deng, and P. Lu, Using an AHP-ISM based method to study the vulnerability factors of urban rail transit system, Sustainability 9 (2017), no. 6, 1065.

[19] C. Tapia, B. Abajo, E. Feliu, M. Mendizabal, J.A. Martinez, J.G. Fernandez, T. Laburu, and A. Lejarazu, Profiling urban vulnerabilities to climate change: An indicator-based vulnerability assessment for European cities, Ecol. Indicat. 78 (2017), 142–155.

[20] J. Twigg and I. Mosel, Emergent groups and spontaneous volunteers in urban disaster response, Envir. Urban. 29 (2017), no. 2, 443–458.

[21] G. Williams, S. Batho, and L. Russell, Responding to urban crisis: The emergency planning response to the bombing of Manchester city centre, Cities 17 (2000), no. 4, 293–304.

[22] S. Zarghami, A. Teimuri, H. Mohammadian, and A. Shamai, Measuring and evaluating the resilience of the urban neighborhoods against the studied earthquake: Central part of Zanjan city), Urban Res. Plan. 7 (2017), no. 27, 77–92.