International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications

Investigating the effects of political, economic and commercial components on changes in Iran's exchange rate

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Economics, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran

10.22075/ijnaa.2024.33355.4965

Abstract

Nowadays, in developing countries, exchange rate fluctuations have gained special importance due to their influence on other economic variables. Exchange rate fluctuations increase uncertainty in society and have unpleasant effects on economic activities, which are very harmful to economic development. For this reason, these countries need to examine the behaviour of the exchange rate and the factors affecting its fluctuations. In this regard, in the current study, the factors influencing the exchange rate volatility in Iran for the period of 1975-2019 have been investigated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. The results of the studies show that during the period under review, in both short- and long-run models, the variables of oil revenues and the degree of trade openness have negative coefficients, an inverse effect, and the variables of economic sanctions and the multi-rate exchange system have positive coefficients. have had a direct impact on the exchange rate volatility, among them, oil revenues and political-economic sanctions have had the greatest impact on Iran's exchange rate volatility, respectively. The coefficient of the obtained error correction sentence was equal to 0.21, which shows that about five periods are necessary to adjust the imbalance in the short term and to establish a long-term equilibrium relationship.

Keywords

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International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications

Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 05 February 2025
  • Receive Date: 22 February 2024
  • Revise Date: 19 March 2024
  • Accept Date: 06 April 2024