Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Omar R. Jasim ¹
• Qutaiba N. Nauef ²

¹ College of Administration and Economics, University of Al-Hamdaniya, Iraq

² College of Administration and Economics, University of Bagdad, Iraq

Abstract

Some properties of the geometric stochastic process (GSP) are studied along with those of a related process which we propose to call the Double geometric stochastic process (DGSP), under certain conditions. This process also has the same advantages of tractability as the geometric stochastic process; it exhibits some properties which may make it a useful complement to the multiple Trends geometric stochastic process. Also, it may be fit to observed data as easily as the geometric stochastic process. As a first attempt, the proposed model was applied to model the data and the Coronavirus epidemic in Iraq to reach the best model that represents the data under study. A chicken swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to choose the best model representing the data, in addition to estimating the parameters a, b, $\mu$, and ${\sigma }^2$ of the double geometric stochastic process, where $\mu$ and ${\sigma }^2$ are the mean and variance of $X_1$, respectively.

Keywords

• double geometric stochastic process
• geometric stochastic process
• parameter estimation
• chicken swarm optimization algorithm
• multiple monotone trends
• root mean square criteria