Standard analysis of factors affecting oil prices in the world market under the theory of rational expectations

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, University of Basra, Iraq

2 Department of Economics, College of Administration and Economics, University of Basra, Iraq


The study targets to determine the factors affecting the world oil markets and describes the significant changes in oil prices in the short and long term predict the optimal price within and outside the sample limits until 2025 by using the data of the study variables for the years (1970-2020) through reconciling the equation of decline in price and factors influencing price determination by the Committee of Oil and Energy Experts has been estimated model using the single equation, The dual logarithm formats, it is more appropriate to describe the large fluctuations in world oil prices and under the assumptions of rational expectations theory and  (ARD) methodology, this model has tested according to the standard specifications where the study found that the estimates of the parameters of the model with model constraints coincided with the limitations of the model to have an impact on those factors in the short and long term of factors affecting the determination of world oil prices, as well as the model appropriate data for predicting and estimate the economic policies and the accuracy of oil and energy experts. Determining crude oil prices according to changes in the specific factors of those prices leads us to accept the hypothesis of rational expectations and its significant role in explaining changes in oil prices.