Predicting the health expenditures in Iran using TVP models

Document Type : Research Paper


Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran


The healthcare sector is one of the main sectors of a country's economy which is considered as an infrastructure for the process of development, so most countries believe in special care for this sector. Due to this fact, in this study, the TVP-DMA model is used to identify the affective factors of healthcare expenditures in Iran's economy. Regarding the subject and purpose of the research, the appropriate method in this research is a regression-type correlation. In this study, seasonal data from (1991-92) to (2015-16) was used. The results of the research based on the output of TVP, DMS, and DMA models reflect the fact that the growth rate of liquidity 30, the economic growth rate 50, unemployment 11, the exchange rate 49, the financial development index 66, oil revenues 54, the misery index 7, the deficit budget of 84 periods out of 104 periods which were under study, All have a significant effect on the factors affecting the healthcare expenditures. It can be stated that budget deficit, financial development index, oil revenues and economic growth are the highest and most important indicators for predicting healthcare expenditures in Iran.


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Volume 14, Issue 8
August 2023
Pages 137-148
  • Receive Date: 25 November 2021
  • Revise Date: 03 January 2022
  • Accept Date: 11 February 2022