Investigating the positive and negative impulses of financial policy on the economy; DSGE model (Case study: Iranian economy)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Financial policies, which are applied with the means of government spending and tax revenues, are among the government's effective levers on macroeconomic variables, which are carried out in order to stabilize economic fluctuations or accelerate economic growth. And for the effectiveness of financial policies, through the application of positive and negative impulses in government spending, to investigate the asymmetric effects of these policies on the variables of total production, private sector production, public sector production, private sector consumption and sector investment. private, using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, during the time period of the first quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2013. The general purpose of this research is to design a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy in order to investigate the effects of fiscal policy impulses on the real production of the Iranian economy. ?" It seems that the effects of positive and negative financial policy impulses on economic growth are significant. The technique used in this research is the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, and in order to analyze the data, the dynare program was used in Matlab and Eviews software. The result of the research shows that the positive and negative impulses of government spending have significant but asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables. Also, the negative impulse effect of government spending (contractionary fiscal policy) is decreasing and greater than the increasing effect of a positive impulse of government expenditures (expansionary fiscal policy).

Keywords

[1] N. Abdollah Zadeh, M. Taghavi and M. Khodaei Valahzaqhard, A study of the impact of cash and earning persistence on stock return in the Tehran Stock Exchange, Trans. Data Anal. Soc. Sci. 3 (2021), no. 1, 30–39.
[2] E. Abonuri, S. Karimi Patanlar and M.R. Mardani, The effect of financial policy on macroeconomic variables of Iran: An approach of vector autoregression method, Econ. Bull. 3 (2017), no. 3.
[3] S. Akbari Dehbaghi, S.A. Arman and M. Ahangari, The impact of domestic and foreign monetary policy on Iran’s economy: Global modeling, J. Money Econ. 15 (2020), no. 2, 151–180.
[4] S.A.R. Alavi Bajgani, K. Peykarjo, K. Hojabr Kiani and T. Torabi, Investigating the asymmetric effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in Iran: A quantile regression approach, J. Econ. Model. 10 (2020), no. 4, 139–158.
[5] H. Alidoost, M.R. Abbaszadeh and M. Jabbari Nooghabi, Measuring the impact of the (2011-2012) financial crisis on the relationship between financial ratios and bank profits, Trans. Data Anal. Soc. Sci. 1 (2019), no. 1, 33–42.
[6] A. Amini and H.M. Neshat, Estimation of the time series of capital stock in Iran’s economy during the period of 1959-2002, J. Plan. Budget. 10 (2005), no. 1, 53–86.
[7] P. Armaghan, M. Hadinejad, M. Daman Kasheh and M. Shojaei, The mechanism of effecting impulses from oil price, currency price and investment considering adjustment costs on stock price index, Financ. Econ. 16 (2022), no. 2, 23–46.
[8] R. Barro, Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth, J. Politic. Econ. 98 (1990), S103–S125.
[9] F. Caprioli and S. Momigliano, The macroeconomic effects of expenditure shocks during good and bad times, Semin. Conveg. Workshops Conf. Fiscal Policy Growth 13 (2013), pp. 79–110.
[10] S. Del Angizan and E. Khazir, Studying the effects of financial policy impulses on the economic growth of Iran,
the period of 1959-2009., Partial. Lett. Econ. Strategy 1 (2012), no. 3.
[11] H. Eslami Mofid Abadi, M. Ebrahimi Shaghaghi and M. Taherifard, Banking, monetary target policy and stock market shock, J. Math. Model. Finance 2 (2022), no. 1, 33–62.
[12] E. Ford, The effects of fiscal policy on output in Belize, M.Sc. Thesis, University of the West of England, 2013.
[13] N. Jafari Azarki and M.M. Noorbakhsh Langrudi, The impact of interest rate changes on stock returns of private banks accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange, Trans. Data Anal. Soc. Sci. 2 (2020), no. 1, 1–9.
[14] M. Kavyani, P. Saidi, H. Dideh Khani and S.F. Fakhrhosseini, The impact of monetary base shocks on stock price returns of listed companies (DSGE approach), Financ. Econ. 12 (2017), no. 42, 121–148.
[15] F. Khodadadi and H. Samsami, Comparative analysis of the effects of monetary and government financial expenditures shocks in the context of fractional and full reserve banking in Iran: DSGE approach, J. Econ. Res. Polic. 30 (2022), no. 102, 7–52.
[16] M. Khosrosereshki, R. Najarzadeh and H. Heydari, The consequences of ignoring the non-Ricardian households in the Ramsey optimal monetary policy and macroeconomic variables (in the form of DSGE model), QJER 22 (2022, no. 2, 119–156.
[17] S. Mohammadi and G. Mansourfar, The effect of financial data noise on the long-term co-movement of stock markets, Trans. Data Anal. Soc. Sci. 4 (2022), no. 1, 9–21.
[18] G. Pellegrino, E. Castelnuovo and G. Caggiano, Uncertainty and monetary policy during the great recession, CESifo Working Paper No. 8985, 2021.
[19] G. Perendia and C. Tsoukis, The Keynesian multiplier, news and fiscal policy rules in a DSGE model, Centre pour la recherche economique et ses applications Dynare Working Paper 25 (2012).
[20] A. Rahmani, S. Samadi and R. Bakhshi Dastjerdi, Investigating the effect of financial and monetary policy on the Iranian stock market by using DSGE model, Iran. Econ. Rev. 25 (2021), no. 3, 509–523.
[21] P.M. Romer, Endogenous technological change, J. Politic. Econ. 98 (1990), no. 5, Part 2, S71–S102.
[22] M. Sayadi and J. Bahrami, Assessing the effects of oil revenue investment policies on macroeconomics variables in Iran: The stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach, Iran. Energy Econ. 4 (2015), no. 16, 85–135.
[23] F. Schorfheide, DSGE model-based estimation of the New Keynesian Philips curve, FRB Richmond Econ. Quart. 94 (2008), no. 4, 397–433.
[24] E. Sefidbakht and M.H. Ranjbar, Volatility spillover between oil price, exchange rates, gold price and stock market indexes with structural breaks, J. Financ. Eng. Secur. Manag. 8 (2018), no. 33, 51–87.
[25] H. Zamanzadeh, A decade of Iran’s economic performance in the mirror of macroeconomic indicators, Econ. News Quart. 8 (2010), no. 129, 35–43.
Volume 14, Issue 8
August 2023
Pages 107-118
  • Receive Date: 15 September 2022
  • Revise Date: 18 November 2022
  • Accept Date: 30 November 2022