International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications

Investigating the effective factors on the non-current claims of the banking system of the country (Iran) and ranking the share of each of them based on the Bayesian averaging approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economics, Abarkouh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Abarkouh, Iran

2 Department of Economics, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran

Abstract

Today, banks are introduced as pillars of economic growth and development. Given the importance of banks in boosting economic growth, identifying the factors influencing non-current demands is essential. Therefore, in this article, we have studied the role of influencing factors on non-current claims. For this purpose, after identifying the variables affecting non-current claims, we have investigated the direction and intensity of the effect of these variables on non-current claims using the Bayesian Model Averaging method. The results obtained from the model estimation show that the growth of GDP and net exports harms the non-current claims of the banking system. Additionally, variables such as inflation growth, exchange rate growth, informal market real interest rate differential, official market interest rate, money supply, budget deficit to gross domestic product ratio, unemployment rate, bank size, past period loans growth, and deposit to cost ratio (as an efficiency measure) have a direct impact on the non-current claims of the banking system. Ultimately, variables such as the national savings to GDP, stock market return, management quality, and ethical risk have no significant influence on the non-current claims of the banking system, considering their low likelihood of inclusion.

Keywords

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International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications

Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 21 May 2025
  • Receive Date: 15 September 2023
  • Accept Date: 15 November 2023